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Feb 10, 2026
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AVOID
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The "flywheel" strategy—issuing stock to buy Bitcoin to boost share price—has broken. Previously, MSTR traded at a premium to its Bitcoin holdings. Now, the stock trades *below* the value of its Bitcoin. This prevents the company from efficiently raising capital to buy more BTC. Additionally, the company faces a massive unrealized loss ($17B+) and has long-dated debt maturing next year. MSTR posted a $17B+ unrealized loss; stock trading at a discount to NAV (Net Asset Value). If confidence erodes further, MSTR may be forced to sell Bitcoin to service debt or pay dividends, adding massive sell pressure to the market. |
CNBC
Behind the volatility in crypto: Bitcoin hove...
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Feb 10, 2026
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NEUTRAL
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Bitcoin is trading around $68k-$69k, having erased post-election gains. The market is seeing heavy selling from ETFs and a lack of new money. The asset is currently trapped between selling pressure and a structural floor. * Bearish Pressure: ETFs have shifted from buying to selling ($5B outflows in 3 months). Holders are underwater (average cost basis ~$90k), creating "overhead supply" where investors sell rallies to break even. * The Floor ($60k): This is the breakeven price for miners. Below $60k, miners stop selling because they go out of business, or they hold to survive, reducing supply. $5B net outflows from ETFs; 10x Research notes ETF holders are down ~31%. A break below $60k could trigger a "death spiral" where miners shut down, reducing network security and forcing liquidations. |
CNBC
Behind the volatility in crypto: Bitcoin hove...
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Feb 10, 2026
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WATCH
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Miners are the primary source of marginal selling pressure right now as they sell coins to keep lights on. With Bitcoin near their production cost ($60k), miners are in survival mode. They are immediately selling mined Bitcoin to service debt. Some are pivoting to "High Performance Computing" (AI) to survive. Production cost cited at $60k. If BTC drops below $60k, widespread bankruptcies and industry consolidation will occur. |
CNBC
Behind the volatility in crypto: Bitcoin hove...
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